756watch.com

Stats

Welcome to 756watch.com! This page is dedicated to the breaking of the major league baseball career home run record, currently held by Hank Aaron, with 755 home runs hit over a 22-year career with the Braves and Brewers. Barry Bonds is the number 1 candidate to break the record right now. He should move into third place ahead of Willie Mays this year and take a good run at the record if he stays healthy. He should need less than 100 by the end of this year, which would require probably three more years of decent production, say 45, 30, 25 home runs, in the years that he turns 40, 41 and 42 respectively. With his current production it's very realistic, but nothing is for sure after 40. Alex Rodriguez seems like a great bet to surpass 756 one day, but that wouldn't be for another 12 years or so. Sosa still has an okay chance but he'll probably need at least one more 50+ HR year to do it.

The projection uses the "Favorite Toy" method of Bill James. I also factor in the player's performance this year to come up with an estimate for home runs hit in the current season. Note: Seasonal age is the age of the player as of July 1 of the current year.

I have written a perl script to update the data daily. It's possible that it may break every so often. Please send me an email (mark [at] jeays [dot] net) if you notice any problems. I have a new source as of July 2003 so bear with me for a little while if it breaks all of a sudden.

New as of August 21, 2003, clicking on the player's name brings you to a chart with the player's HR progress over time, along with his projected chance after each year. Clicking the ESPN link gives you the player's ESPN stats page and clicking the BR link gives you the players' Baseball-Reference.com page.

Estimated chance that anyone currently playing will hit 756 or more home runs: 70.5%

Last updated after games of Monday, Sep 29, 2003 2:08 am EDT